CARB plan update ignores warming lull

July 2, 2013

By Dave Roberts

Five years ago the California Air Resources Board adopted a scoping plan to implement AB 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. The plan outlines myriad regulations imposed on state residents and businesses in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

CARB officials are now updating the scoping plan. So you might think this would be a good opportunity to take a step back to see whether the plan is even necessary. The New York Times reported recently that the “rise in the surface temperature of earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace.”

But second thoughts about the need for California’s vast regulatory scheme were not raised at CARB’s scoping plan update workshop in Los Angeles on June 26 (Webcast in the link). To the contrary, nearly everyone who spoke at the 4½-hour meeting praised the state’s efforts.

However, a couple of lone voices advised caution before leaping further into the climate change void. Richard Lambros, managing director of the business-led Southern California Leadership Council, pointed out that California is unable to accomplish much on its own. But it can have an impact if it provides a model for other states and nations to follow; failure to do so would leave California at a competitive disadvantage.

Challenge

“While we support the idea that as California achieves our GHG [greenhouse gas] goals, the challenge of global warming will still not be addressed,” said Lambros. “A level playing field will not exist domestically or internationally. Markets will continue to be imbalanced unless the remainder of the world does the same as what we’re doing here. Thus California’s greatest contribution ultimately in addressing this issue is to show the rest of the world how GHG emissions can be reduced smartly, cost effectively and in a manner that retains or improves a state’s or country’s global economic position.”

Whether that is even possible remains in question. The answer to that question is particularly important for Southern Californians, who are much more reliant on manufacturing, construction and transportation jobs than better-educated Northern Californians, said Lambros. Unfortunately for Southern California, those industries have a big target on their backs.

“All of those are front line industries when we try to start to further address climate change,” said Lambros. “So no matter how you slice it, we are going to have to smartly address those industries, or risk completely diminishing them. Which then has obviously a very significant effect because of our education gap and the makeup of our economy. So this has to be done smartly. That means from a regional perspective, we need CARB to set goals but leave a lot of local control and flexibility on how we achieve those goals. Ultimately this is all about creating smart followers.”

Texas

But while California is trying to become the anti-global warming pied piper, it may turn around to see that other states and nations are instead following the lead of Texas, which has two-thirds the population of California but twice as much carbon emission.

“They have 6.5 percent unemployment compared to our 8.6 percent,” said Lambros. “They have 4.8 percent GDP growth, we have 3.5. So while we are trying to do this, because of the lack of a competitive playing field, we are at a competitive disadvantage. We can have the greatest [anti-global warming] plans in the world, but we won’t get there because of the economic damage that will occur in the interim from our competitors. So it’s really important that we recognize that and try to allow ourselves to continue to work together. Work as partners, understand each other’s needs and do it smartly.”

It’s likely that Lambros’ words will fall on deaf ears, given the strong support and momentum for emission-reduction action in California, damn the anti-business consequences.

Two more scoping plan update workshops are scheduled: July 18 in Fresno and July 30 in the Bay Area. A draft report is scheduled to be released in mid-August. The board is expected to adopt the update in November.