Debate ignored issue crucial to California: immigration
Oct. 4, 2012
By John Seiler
I agree with my colleague Katy Grimes’ assessment that Mitt Romney easily won last night’s debate. He easily command over President Valium.
But the debate ignored an issue critical to California: immigration.
Romney won the primaries largely because he talked tough on immigration. He painted his main opponents, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, as amnesty wimps. This went over big time with the party’s anti-immigration base.
As longtime Romney enthusiast Ann Coulter wrote last December:
“capitulate on illegal immigration, and the entire country will have the electorate of California. There will be no turning back….
“Massive legal and illegal immigration has already so changed the California electorate that no Republican can be elected statewide anymore. Not so long ago, this was a state that produced great Republican governors and senators like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, S.I. Hayakawa and Pete Wilson.
“If even Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, two bright, attractive, successful female business executives — one pro-life and one pro-choice — can’t win a statewide election in California spending millions of their own dollars in the middle of the 2010 Republican sweep, it’s buenas noches, muchachos.
“Only Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney aren’t trying to sneak through amnesty for illegal aliens.”
By then, Bachmann was not a contender. So that left Romney.
Gov. Etch-A-Sketch
But on Monday, Romney flip-flopped on immigration — again. National Journal reported:
“Mitt Romney’s advisers have long insisted that economic doldrums—not immigration policy—would turn Hispanic voters toward the Republican nominee.
“But Romney’s decision to break his silence on allowing young illegal immigrants to stay in the United States reflects a shift in that failing strategy and an implicit admission that the increasingly powerful Hispanic vote could, in part, cost him the election.
“After months of mostly stonewalling about President Obama’s order to stop deporting children brought to the United States illegally by their parents, Romney told The Denver Post on Monday that he would not repeal those temporary visas. On Tuesday, his campaign said he would end the program for others if elected president.”
Actually, the Hispanic vote is only about 7 percent of the electorate. It routinely votes about 67 percent Democratic. Assuming Romney’s new position resonates among Hispanics, he might reduce that 67 percent to 60 percent — if he’s lucky. So, he would improve by 7 percentage points. Multiply that (.07) times a 7 percent electorate (.07) and at most he would gain 0.35 percentage points.
Moreover, few of the expected pro-Romney Hispanic switch would be in swing states. Most Hispanics live in big Blue states (California, New York, Illinois) or Texas (Red state for now). Florida is an exception, because it’s a swing state with a lot of Hispanics. But most Hispanics there are Cubans, for whom there’s already a special law allowing relatives to come here as refugees from Castro’s communism.
Hispanics soon will be a much larger electorate. They’re 16 percent of the population now, but their population is younger, so they have more kids under 18 years old; and many are immigrants, legal and illegal, until they become citizens. But this isn’t the 2024 election; it’s the 2012 election.
Meanwhile, the white (“Anglo”) electorate still is about 65 percent of the national electorate. Probably at least half of them oppose amnesty. How many of them will be offended now that Romney supports amnesty? Probably a lot more than .35 percentage points. Many in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and other swing states will stay home in disgust on election day.
It’s no wonder his adviser, Eric Fehrnstrom, said last March after Mitt had wound up his primary victories and secured the nomination, “Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again.”
Obama could have brought up amnesty as yet another Etch-A-Sketch Romney moment, but the president was napping.
Maybe immigration will come up in a later debate. But for now, this issue crucial especially to California is not even being discussed in this campaign.
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Well…..if Willard wins, since we will be 5 tril in the hole from his 20% tax cut, there will be no funds to tackle immigration! (of course now he says there will be no tax cut,,,) zzzzzzzzzzzz
Katy— The President was not, as you say, “napping”. He was in a deep coma.
“He easily command over President Valium.” ???
“Most Hispanics live in big Blue states (California, New York, Illinois) or Texas (Blue state for now).” ???
With all due respect John, I think someone needs to edit the editor.
My hypercritical nitpicking aside, it seems obvious enough that Mitt and the Republican establishment are hell bent to seek short term tactical advantage at the expense of long term strategic viability. The brainless doctrine that all immigrants are sainted, hard working, salt-of-the-earth saviors of the nation is predominant at Retardpublican Party headquarters.
The deliciously svelte but politically wrongheaded Ms. Coulter is right about immigration and it’s effect on California. The Republicans are playing Russian roulette on immigration. They have shot themselves in the noggin here in Kali. and will eventually do so nationally. Pat Buchanan has been all over this for two decades, which is why he is persona non gratis in his own party.
They say forewarned is forearmed but the Stupid Party needs to remove the live round from the chamber and put the gun down before the whole damn nation gets Californicated.
— Editor’s note: I corrected the original to read that Texas is “Red state for now.” Thank you for the correction.
Ted; apparently you weren’t listening. We will NOT be $5 trillion in the hole.
The 20% cut will be offset by reducing deductions. So it will be revenue neutral. (?)
PLUS, by reducing taxes, (?) we will increase economic activity, which will result in more jobs. (?)
And Rmoney will NOT sign any tax bill that increases the deficit.(?)
Voodo economics?
“Well…..if Willard wins, since we will be 5 tril in the hole from his 20% tax cut, there will be no funds to tackle immigration! (of course now he says there will be no tax cut,,,)”
Don’t worry Afro-Swarm, ain’t gonna be no tax cuts if Flip-Flop Mitt gets elected. That’s just more pandering to eternally gullible voters. Remember, the trick in politics is to find out the lies voters want to hear and tell them over and over with as much sincerity as you can fake. Besides, since when do you Blue Team members care about deficits? After all, we just owe it to ourselves right?
Where are those “like” and “you’re an asshole” buttons. I’m still waiting.
Douglas– Yes– I have heard all that junk—- Of course Willard Mitt has ZERO explanation for his numbers and the CBO says it aint so! LOL—–
Dyscleptic— I am a Blue Dog Dem– I care about the def a whole bunch!
“Dyscleptic— I am a Blue Dog Dem– I care about the def a whole bunch!”
But you still voted for Jerry and company right? And you will still pull the lever for Barry come November, right? Two of the biggest deficit spenders in world history.
By the way, if you have to mangle my pseudonym please spell correctly. It should read Dyskleptic, from the greek suffix ‘dys’ mean faulty or bad and the Greek kleptein meaning to steal, so Dyskleptic would mean a bad thief.
@ us citizen – Like and dislike buttons are a juvenile gimmick for shallow people who think likability is oh so important. Does that mean I don’t get your vote for Prom King? I’m crushed!
Douglas says:
Ted; apparently you weren’t listening
Bwhahahaha…even Teddy’s sock puppets are tunring onhim 🙂
I love it.
Where are those “like” and “you’re an asshole” buttons. I’m still waiting.
We need a special button for Teddy “You’re a D-bag” 😉
Dysphoric– I am well aware!
and a Brown vote, well yes. The President, but of course. The only other guy running is an Etch-a-Sketch ™ !!
Yawn……….. Teddy go home 😉
Poodle brings nothing to the daily debate being a hapless dog sweater!
Speaking of illegals, how did this Afracanized Swarm get into the country and this blog?
Bob. Teddy is the sage CWD. GET USED TO IT. defer to the Master!
“@ us citizen – Like and dislike buttons are a juvenile gimmick for shallow people who think likability is oh so important. Does that mean I don’t get your vote for Prom King? I’m crushed!”
Not personal likeability……..I disagree with the lack of buttons………they are perfect for the “thought processes” that are Not really worthy of wasting time on by making a comment or are totally out of the ball park. As for prom king…….I dont know. Bribe me with dinner.
Bob, Uhaul IS teddy, get USED TO IT 🙂
So are Uhaul and Teddy schizophrenic, dual personalities, twins……..?? All three? 🙂
Mr. Seiler, you answered your own question in the title of your piece. ‘Issue critical to Kalifornia’.
Kalifornia is so blue the political class thinks the pacific ocean starts at Needles. Kalifornia is so dysfunctional and blue it’s not even on the political radar screen for both parties. Gas prices at 5 bucks, unemployment at near 11% when it should be at 6%, endless gigantic deficits in a bankrupt state and economy, and the people keep voting demoncrat.
Go figure.
Or go to Greece to see how this ends.
Hondo……
Hondo- the CA U/E rate is at 23%m that is the U-6 rate, the TRUE UE rate.
US Cit, yes, Teddy has two sock puppets here (and probably more), Uhaul and Queeg.
The unemployment rate falls today to a 4 year low— watch the doom and gloom clown posse out here try to spin it!
LOL
(any comment yet poodle on your failure to predict the pension rollback cases?)
[email protected] “4 year low”…sort of like saying the Titanic floated for over an hour after it hit the iceberg…….teddy, you kill me lil buddy 😉
CA U6 UE rate= 23%…. for last 36 months….BAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4 year low baby !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Zero the Poodle remains 0 for 13 ™ and no comment on the pension roll back loss he suffered!
Stop being manipulated by media….your unhappy constantly….you probably are bone white from no time in the wonderful sun….your Big Lots robe hasn’t been washed in weeks….shaved…nah…..get a grip…
Teddy, Uhaul, Douglas, Skipping Dog, I think Queeg, are enjoying life…jovial, good hearted, compassionated, tolerent….ah….the good life!
lmao— Big Lots ™ robe!!!!!
I ,LOVE Big Lots, was better when it was Pic n Save tho 😉
I can see him shuffling around in his Big Lots brown stained robe as the sunrise hits the tin foil lining the windows of his 1968 single wide……a gentle breeze rustles the mud dust and litter along the length of his old tire fence. He is out of cigs but his car won’t start. Life of the Poodle pension envier…..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Speaking of illegals, how did this Afracanized Swarm get into the country and this blog?
Two words= knee pads.
The Poodle is afraid of me! LOL
still no comment Poodle about you legal prowess and your prediction fails??? LOL
Hey, He can win! This is good stuff!.
So, Romney finally won something, he fires big bird and Jim Lehrer, and tosses away all his previous core beliefs.
Well at least now he can say the poll numbers are his way, and his campaign will continue to adamantly defend the poll numbers.
But then the 7.8 percent unemployment rate came out and Romney and his campaign say its not “Sunrise in America”. like 7.4 Percent Was ‘Morning Again in America.
I was real surprise to see Romney say he was completely wrong about his 47 percent remarks, and it only took him three times.
I am waiting for Ann Romney to take back her “Latino biased against the GOP” and “You People” comments, but its too late for her and her husband.
The venom I saw GOP dish out during the immigration debate against those from Latin America and the sweet names they came up with like anchor baby(one of the least offensive), and they are surprise we remember. Not to mention the Voter ID in GOP controlled states have passd to reduce Obama votes (Gosh right before a tight presidential race they change the rules, please, we know whats going on).
Its funny seeing Romney trying to run down our country and say that 7.8 percent unemployment rate is not real or a good thing.
I guess we will find out in November who people believe.
This is good stuff!, I love it.